Will bitcoin reach $100K?

Despite my reservations about blockchain’s evolution from a secure, decentralised ledger to a speculative “digital world” frenzy, I think Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is not only plausible but likely, albeit not for the reasons suggested in the recent Forbes opinion piece.

Ironically, the current market sentiment, plagued with fear and looming crash predictions, could actually drive a Bitcoin surge. This caution encourages hedging and conservative investment behaviours that prevent the bubble from bursting prematurely, or even lead to short positions that drive BTC higher within a short timeframe.

Imagine this scenario: Bitcoin hits $100,000. Those predicting a crash sustain significant losses, while BlackRock, backed by its Bitcoin ETF, reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold.” This would likely trigger FOMO (fear of missing out), prompting investors to go all-in and neglect risk management. Such unchecked optimism and lack of hedging are the kind of conditions that often lead to major market “corrections,” to say the least.

If potential new stimulus measures materialise, there could be more than enough liquidity to propel Bitcoin’s price further. Yet, inevitably, the narrative will shift from “stimulus” to the mounting debt it generates, and the momentum will slow, perhaps dramatically.

So, while Bitcoin at $100,000 is indeed possible, it may set the stage for a more severe and devastating crash, one driven by excessive optimism and unsustainable economic policy.